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general
independent correlation
independent correlation - cumulative probability graph
positive correlation
positive correlation - cumulative probability graph
negative correlation
conditional correlation
conditonal correlation - cumulative probability graph
Ttriple approach - cumulative probability graph
general
complex branching
complex branching calculations
multiple branching
multiple branching calculations
multiple probability branching
multiple probability branching calculations
production example
production example - more
production example - output graph
nodes and branching networks
nodes and branching networks output graph
Other useful links:
project management project management basics.com. time management time management basics.com. leadership leadership basics.com. The Complete Project management package
Topics include
The complete
Topics include
The Complete Time management package
Topics include
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Risk Management - General points to consider - resource levels
Risk management is part of project management. When planning the process there are some general points to consider e.g. resource levels. Resource level:When plans are put together one of the hardest aspects is trying to get people to consider that their estimates for planning may be wrong.Things do not always go to the project management plan. People usually have a very good idea of how long they think a task will take. They find it difficult to consider that it may take longer and thus to provide maximum estimate. Perhaps this is considered to be an admission of failure either of the estimating procedure or the management of the task. You may find some leadership trainng useful (see 'The Complete Leadership package'). In general, there doesn't seems to be quite the same fear of a cost over run compared to a schedule or deadline over run. This is because cost changes are managed in house whereas schedule deadlines are customer related and are thus much more visible. It is not always an easy matter to manage the resource for a project management task to make sure it finishes on time (see 'The Complete Time management package'). For short tasks there may be little time to realise that all is not going well but for longer tasks it is perfectly feasible to do it.
If we decide to add additional staff we have to consider how we calculate it. Presently, we have used up 4 weeks and have 16 weeks to go (to remain on the original schedule of 20 weeks). We have 9 (parts) x 8 (originally 4 but now 8 weeks per part) = 72 man weeks of work to go. We could ask the men to work the equivalent of an extra day per week. This would mean. 2 staff at 5 days per week = 10 man days Extra day per week per man = 2 man days Total man days = 12 man days in each week Equivalent to 12 / 5 = 2.4 men per week. We have 72 man weeks of work to go and now the equivalent of 2.4 men per week. The other 9 parts will take an additional: 72 / 2.4 = 30 weeks. This is still a lot more than the 16 weeks left. If the 2 persons worked 7 day weeks we would have: Equivalent of 7/5 x 2 = 2.8 men per week. The additional 9 parts would take 72/2.8 = 25.7 weeks, still no good. The only answer is to get extra staff. To complete the project management task (see 'The Complete Project management package') in the remaining 16 weeks we will need a total of 72/16 = 4.5 men per week. We already have 2 men so we need another 2.5 or in reality 3 men. This could be managed more accurately by 2 men for so long and then 3 men to make up the numbers. However, it is not quite this simple.
If this is the case you may need not 3 but perhaps many more. After 10 weeks a total of 10/4 x 1 = 2.5 parts completed. (we knew that the first part took 4 weeks but 8 man weeks). This will leave 7.5 parts, taking 7.5 x 8 = 60 man weeks. To complete in the remaining 10 weeks will require = 60/10 = 6 men We already have 2 so need to appoint another 4 staff instead of the 2.5 above. Even so it may be very difficult to control and manage tasks in this way. A simpler way would be to allow enough staff to cover for the worst estimate. If the task finishes early resource can be released elsewhere. ControlYou realise that the project deadline will over run, what can you do about it?There are only a few realistic options.
Contractors (and subcontractors)It is rare to carry out all of the work on a project in house. Even in house parts of the project may be carried out by other departments.In these cases, it may be difficult to not only control what is happening but to have any influence over the work. When trying to build a schedule with the appropriate risk management 3 point estimates it may be hard to get the required commitment. If the information is not forthcoming it will be up to you to assimilate the 3 point estimates. After all it will be you that will carry the risk of the overall project. There can be a tendency to think 'out of sight , out of mind' and that once a section of the plan in in the hands of a contractor then it must be delivered on time. After all you will be paying for their services. Then again the customer will be paying for your services and expecting his product on time (see 'The Complete Time management package'). You expect problems so what is there that is any different for a contractor? Nothing. However, there are additional things to worry about. What if they go out of business, lose key staff or they prove to be incompetent? You will have to bear all of this in mind when setting the 3 point estimates. Particular areas to consider from a risk perspective. If you do not manage the risks well and problems materialise this could lead to opportunities for the contractor. If relations between the client and the contractor are strained for any reason this could be one of the biggest risks. Both parties will generate risk assessments but communication between the two is essential. CustomerLast but certainly not least is the customer.Get it wrong and your reputation can suffer, which will have a negative effect on other potential projects. If you can provide a bid which is backed up with a good 'risk assessment' then you will have a positive advantage. Your customer will be confident that you can deliver. Whilst the bid may only be seen immediately by the lower management personnel, the Chief Executive will still need to convince shareholders that their interests are being well managed. You should be able to show where the key risk areas are and how they will be managed. 
The Complete RISK management package Easy to understand with many examples. Links on this site: Risk management - contractors Risk management - control and customer Other useful links at project management basics.com: Risk management Risk management - assessment methods Risk management - general approach Risk management - risk and issues Risk management main overview Project management - responsibility Project management - responsibility - detailed planning Project management - responsibility - issues Project management - constraint on resource Project management - customer relationship management Project management - Human resource and recruitment Project management - procurement overview Project management - procurement appointment Project management - procurement timing Project management - resource project management - exit stategy project management - Health and safety project management - project assumptions Other useful links at time management basics.com: Time management - resources Time management - resource issues Time management - staff issues Time management - commitment Time management - prioritising Time management - typical process Time management - strategies for getting on with it Time management - delegation process Time management - review |
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