Risk management - Cumulative probability graph
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Cumulative probability graph
This shows the cumulative probability graph for tasks ‘A’ or ‘B’ and tasks ‘A’ and ‘B’ combined [see The Risk Management process - Evaluate - independent correlation].
Note that although we were looking at values of:
| Delay |
Probability |
| 7 |
0.3 |
| 9 |
0.5 |
| 11 |
0.2 |
We are actually seeing the ranges:
| Delay |
Probability |
| 6 to 8 |
0.3 |
| 8 to 10 |
0.5 |
| 10 to 12 |
0.2 |
| Delay |
Calculation |
Probability |
| 14 |
0.3 x 0.3 |
|
|
|
|
0.09 |
| 16 |
0.3 x 0.5 |
+ |
0.5 x 0.3 |
|
|
0.30 |
| 18 |
0.3 x 0.2 |
+ |
0.5 x 0.5 |
+ |
0.2 x 0.3 |
0.37 |
| 20 |
|
|
0.5 x 0.2 |
+ |
0.2 x 0.5 |
0.20 |
| 22 |
|
|
|
|
0.2 x 0.2 |
0.04 |
Non - PRINCE2 information