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Feel free to use any of the links and information below. The top link is the site index page. | |
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Risk management basics | |
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Risk Management basics Risk management includes, proactive and reactive planning, triggers, monitoring and control, risk combination, Monte Carlo distribution, and more... |
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What is risk? | |
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Risk uncertainty Risk management requires the management of uncertainty. What does it mean and how does it affect a project? What are risks and what are issues? |
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Risk concern Risk management if ignored can negatively affect costs. Control of costs, schedules and revenue is part of the project and risk management process. |
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Risk plan Risk management requires the management of uncertainty. Developing appropriate plans for known and potential risks will reduce crisis management. |
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Risk question Risk management covers the entire project life cycle. It will involve people, reasons for the project, a product, a strategy, resources and timing. |
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Risk succeed Risk management is part of project management. Success will depend upon good integration of planning and the identification and management of risks. |
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Why carry out risk assessment? | |
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Why carry out RM? Risk management is often a poorly understood process. If approached in the right way there are many benefits to implementing risk assessment… |
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What should risk analysis provide? Risk management should provide information to clarify timing and risk management, priorities, risk aggregation, decision making help and realism... |
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Why carry out RM2? Risk management is often a poorly understood process. If approached in the right way there are many benefits to implementing risk assessment… |
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3 ways to view risk management | |
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3 ways to vview risk management Risk management is part of the project management process. There are a number of ways to view the impact of risk assessment in project management… |
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Generral comments RM | |
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General comments Rm Risk management is part of the project management process. It depends on your view of the level of risk versus the impact of that risk on the project… |
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Accountability | |
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Accountability Risk management as part of project management will require clear lines of accountability. Without this poor project control will result… |
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Stakeholders | |
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Stakeholders Risk management can not be managed in isolation. Risk identification will require presentation and justification to various project stakeholders… |
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Success measures | |
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Success measures Risk management, like other aspects of project management, will need success criteria. Without these you won’t know if the project has ended. |
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Basic steps | |
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Core process steps Risk management requires the identification and management of risks. A methodical approach is needed. There are some core process steps… |
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Overall steps Risk management requires the identification and management of risks. The core process steps can be represented by a simple activity list… |
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Simple process outline Risk management requires the identification and management of risks. The core process steps can be represented by a simple process outline… |
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Human relations | |
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Human relations overview and negatives Risk management needs to be sold to the project management and senior management teams. Human resources can give rise to some negatives views… |
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Benefits Risk management has many benefits. You will need to communicate these with the project management and senior management teams. What are they? |
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Benefits2 Risk management has many benefits. You will need to communicate these with the project management and senior management teams. What are they? |
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Project life cycle | |
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Project life cycle overview Risk management is part of the project management process and as such has influence at all stages of the project life cycle. How does it fit in? |
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Concept Risk management is part of the project management process and as such has influence at all stages of the project life cycle. The first is concept… |
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Execute Risk management is part of the project management process and as such has influence at all stages of the project life cycle. The third is execute… |
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General points Risk management is part of the project management process and as such has influence at all stages of the project life cycle. General points… |
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Plan Risk management is part of the project management process and as such has influence at all stages of the project life cycle. The second is plan… |
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Termination Risk management is part of the project management process and as such has influence at all stages of the project life cycle. The fourth is termination… |
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Cost terms | |
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Cost terms Risk management, like project management uses jargon. What are the definitions for expected costs contingency, target cost, provision and commitments? |
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Statistical terms | |
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Statistical terms Risk management, like project management has its share of jargon. What are the definitions for mean, median, variance, mode and standard deviation? |
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The risk management process | |
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Process overview Risk management is part of project management. The basic steps are define, identify, organise, ownership, estimate, evaluate, plan and manage… |
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Define the process Risk management is part of project management. Within the project life cycle it can be broken down into several steps, e.g. 'defining the process'… |
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Define the project Risk management is part of project management. Within the project life cycle it can be broken down into several steps, e.g. ‘defining the project’… |
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Estimate overview Risk management is part of project management. Within the project life cycle it consists of several steps, e.g. Estimate (the size of risks)… |
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Identify risks and responses Risk management is part of project management. Within the project life cycle it can comprise several steps, one being 'identify risks and responses… |
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Manage Risk management is part of project management. Within the project life cycle it consists of several steps, e.g. Manage (the plan and risks)… |
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Organise Risk management is part of project management. It consists of several steps, one being to organise the information (prioritise risks and responses)’… |
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Ownership Risk management is part of project management. It consists of several steps, one being ownership (of risks, responsibilities and contractors)… |
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Process plan Risk management is part of project management. Within the project life cycle it consists of several steps, e.g. Plan (plans and strategies)… |
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Process timing Risk management is part of project management. The timing of its implementation within the project life cycle has advantages and disadvantages… |
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Estimate | |
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Estimate overview Risk management is part of project management. Within the project life cycle it consists of several steps, e.g. Estimate (the size of risks)… |
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Breakdown of variables Risk management is part of project management. The breaking down of variables can help to assess the outcome of a project. An example is given… |
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Obtaining the estimates Risk management is part of project management. When using a simple estimating procedure what are the steps taken in obtaining the estimates? |
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Simple estimate Risk management is part of project management. How do you begin estimating, what are the problems? We can use a simple estimating procedure… |
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Simple estimate detail Risk management is part of project management. How do you begin estimating, what are the problems? More details of a simple estimating procedure… |
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Simple estimate problems Risk management is part of project management. Using a simple estimating procedure. How do you begin estimating? What are the problems? … |
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Evaluate | |
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Evaluate overview Risk management is part of project management. Within the project life cycle it consists of several steps, e.g. Evaluate (earlier estimates)… |
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Approach 1, 2 and 3 cumulative probability graph Risk management is part of project management. Risk combination of e.g. approaches ‘1’, ‘2’ or ‘3’ can be viewed as a Cumulative Probability Graph… |
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Conditional correlation Risk management is part of project management. During Evaluation you should be aware of risk combinations. One of which is Conditional Correlation… |
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Conditional-correlation-cumulative-probability-graph Risk management is part of project management. Risk combination can have Conditional Correlation and be viewed as a Cumulative Probability Graph… |
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Independent correlation Risk management is part of project management. During Evaluation you should be aware of risk combinations. One of which is Independent Correlation… |
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Independent correlation cumulative probability graph Risk management is part of project management. Risk combination can have Independent Correlation and be viewed as a Cumulative Probability Graph… |
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Negative correlation Risk management is part of project management. During Evaluation you should be aware of risk combinations. One of which is Negative Correlation… |
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Positive correlation Risk management is part of project management. During Evaluation you should be aware of risk combinations. One of which is Positive Correlation… |
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Positive-correlation-cumulative-probability-graph Risk management is part of project management. Risk combination can have Positive Correlation and be viewed as a Cumulative Probability Graph… |
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Plan | |
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Plan overview Risk management is part of project management. Within the project life cycle it consists of several steps. The process needs planning… |
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Base plan Risk management is part of project management. There are a variety of plans used including Initial and Reference plans. The main key is the Base plan… |
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Contingency,-horizon-and-action-plan Risk management is part of project management. There are a variety of plans. Amongst others there are Contingency, Horizon and Action plans… |
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General-comments-on-planning Risk management is part of project management. The process will need to be planned. Here are some general comments on planning… |
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Initial and reference plan Risk management is part of project management. There are a variety of plans used. Two of these, amongst others, are Initial and Reference plans… |
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Ways to modify a plan Risk management is part of project management. The project isn’t on track and you need to modify the plan. How can you adjust the plan? |
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General points to consider | |
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Resource level Risk management is part of project management. When planning the process there are some general points to consider e.g. resource levels… |
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Contractors Risk management is part of project management. When planning the process there are some general points to consider e.g. contractors… |
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Control and customer Risk management is part of project management. When planning the process there are some general points to consider e.g. control and customers… |
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Manage | |
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Manage Risk management is part of project management. Within the project life cycle it consists of several steps. The process needs Managing… |
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Cost and resource Risk management is part of project management. Managing project risk will include cost, resource, management effectiveness and modelling techniques… |
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Identify risk issues Risk management is part of project management. Before we can control risks we must identify them. How can we go about this? |
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Managing the process Risk management is part of project management. Once the risks have been identified, and the planning is completed they will need to be Managed… |
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Other issues and the PLC Risk management is part of project management. We must identify risks before controlling them. How does the project life cycle phase affect this?s |
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The contractor | |
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Risk assessment positioning Risk management is part of project management. Contractors need to assess risks. There are many aspects to consider e.g. risk assessment positioning… |
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Cost plus fixed fee Risk management is part of project management. Contractors need to assess risks. There are many aspects to consider e.g. Cost plus fixed fee contracts… |
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Fixed price Risk management is part of project management. Contractors need to assess risks. There are many aspects to consider e.g. Fixed price contracts… |
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General comments Risk management is part of project management. Contractors need to assess risks. There are many aspects to consider e.g. the contract… |
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Screening Risk management is part of project management. Contractors need to assess risks. There are many aspects to consider e.g. Contractor Screening… |
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Transferring risk Risk management is part of project management. Contractors need to assess risks. There are many aspects to consider e.g. Transferring risk… |
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Risk combination | |
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Risk combination Risk management is part of project management. You can combine risks to obtain a summary for the whole project. Simple addition may be misleading… |
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Common methods of risk assessment | |
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Methods of risk assessment overview Risk management is part of project management. Common methods for risk assessment are issue based, checklist, qualitative and quantitative… |
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Checklists Risk management is part of project management. Of the common methods for risk assessment we will look at Checklists in more detail… |
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Issue based Risk management is part of project management. Of the common methods for risk assessment we will look at Issue based in more detail… |
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Qualitative Risk management is part of project management. Of the common methods for risk assessment we will look at Qualitative methods in more detail… |
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Quantitative Risk management is part of project management. Of the common methods for risk assessment we will look at Quantitative methods in more detail… |
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Timing Risk management is part of project management. Common methods for risk assessment are e.g. issue based, checklist, have their drawbacks… |
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Quantitative | |
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Quantitative overview Risk management is part of project management. Of the common methods for risk assessment we will look at Quantitative methods in more detail… |
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Cost model liklihood Risk management is part of project management. We can view a cost model and risk likelihood as part of a Quantitative method of risk assessment… |
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Cost model with uncertainty Risk management is part of project management. We can view a cost model with uncertainty for a Quantitative method of risk assessment in more detail… |
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Simple cost model Risk management is part of project management. We can look at a simple cost model for a Quantitative method of risk assessment in more detail… |
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Simple example detail A Risk management is part of project management. We can look at a simple example of Quantitative methods of risk assessment in more detail… |
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Simple example detail B Risk management is part of project management. We can look at a simple example of Quantitative methods of risk assessment in more detail… |
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Monte Carlo Distribution | |
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Monte Carlo overview Risk management is part of project management. If 10 activities each have a range of values of 1 to 10 you can’t check all the potential combinations… |
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How do we carry out the simulations? Risk management is part of project management. Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for risk assessment. How do we carry them out? |
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Monte Carlo distribution Risk management is part of project management. Monte Carlo simulations can lead to Monte Carlo distributions helping assess risk combinations …" |
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Monte Carlo risk distribution Risk management is part of project management. Monte Carlo distribution can help in risk assessment. How can you set a total project cost at low risk? |
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Monte Carlo simulation Risk management is part of project management. Using software Monte Carlo simulations can be used to examine a number of potential risk combinations … |
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Monte Carlo simulation output Risk management is part of project management. Risk combinations can be considered by looking at Monte Carlo simulation outputs… |
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Probability Density Function (PDF) Risk management is part of project management. Monte Carlo simulation is used in risk assessment. Where does the Probability Density Function fit in? |
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Triangular Probability Density Function Risk management is part of project management. Monte Carlo simulation is used in risk assessment. What is a Triangular Probability Density Function? |
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Uncertain events | |
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Uncertain events overview Risk management is part of project management. Projects often have uncertain events. These can lead to different pathways shown by branching points… |
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Probability versus total cost graph Risk management is part of project management. Uncertain events, different pathways, branching points and likelihoods in detail. An example… |
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Simple pathway Risk management is part of project management. Uncertain events, different pathways, branching points and likelihoods in detail. An example… |
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Simple pathway more detail Risk management is part of project management. Uncertain events, different pathways, branching points and likelihoods in detail. An example… |
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Uncertain events values and correlation Risk management is part of project management. Uncertain values, uncertain events and correlated events are some of the basic elements… |
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Correlated events | |
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Correlated overview Risk management is part of project management. Some events are driven by a common underlying factor. These are Correlated events… |
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Break down structure influencing results Risk management is part of project management. How can the use of risk assessment be influenced in the level of the work breakdown structure? |
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Process steps Risk management is part of project management. For correlated events driven by a common underlying factor what are the process steps to consider? |
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Ranges of correlation Risk management is part of project management. Some events are driven by a common underlying factor. What are the ranges of Correlated events? |
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Simple probability estimation Risk management is part of project management. How do you estimate the likelihood of a risk occurring? You can use a simple probability estimate… |
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Risk management versus a traditional approach Risk management is part of project management. Many projects do not use risk assessment and instead use traditional methods. How do they compare? |
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Task information | |
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Collecting task information Risk management is part of project management. If we look at assessing cost we would use work breakdown structure to get the task information… |
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Other areas to review Risk management is part of project management. Within work packages, resource, mechanism and timing there are a few extra points to consider… |
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Task documentation Risk management is part of project management. We need to gather information from each task to assess the overall risk. How can we document this? |
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Data handling | |
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Data handling Risk management is part of project management. Data collection from 3 point estimates can be collated in a spreadsheet. What will this look like? |
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Monte Carlo risk data distribution Risk management is part of project management. 3 – point estimates can be converted to a Monte Carlo distribution. How can we interpret the data? |
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Multiple variables Risk management is part of project management. Data collection from 3 point estimates can be collated in a spreadsheet. What about multiple variables? |
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Budget versus contingency | |
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Setting the contingency Risk management is part of project management. How does budget relate to contingency? How can we set the contingency against the budget? |
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Alternative setting of the contingency Risk management is part of project management. How does budget relate to contingency? How can we set the contingency against the budget? |
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Budget versus contingency | |
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Setting the contingency Control will not be achieved in a project without documentation. A lot of information will be generated that will need a system to manage it… |
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Alternative setting of the contingency Control of a project will carry on beyond the completion of the product. Once the customer has the product will it work is it what was requested? |
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Schedule risk assessment | |
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Dependencies Risk management is part of project management. Schedule risk assessment is similar to cost. You will need to take into account task dependencies… |
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Dependencies in software Risk management is part of project management. Schedule risk assessment is similar to cost. Tracking dependencies will involve suitable software… |
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Simple network | |
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Simple network Risk management is part of project management. Schedule risk assessment is similar to cost. We can look at a simple network with two pathways… |
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Simple network no lag duration Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Let’s look at a simple network having two pathways and no task lags… |
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Simple network with lag duration Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Let’s look at a simple network having two pathways with task lags… |
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Branching | |
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Branching overview Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Potential multiple pathways may not occur. These are branching points… |
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Complex branching Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. These can be simple or complex… |
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Complex branching calculation Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. These can be simple or complex… |
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Multiple branching Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. What does multiple branching look like? |
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Multiple branching calculation Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. What does multiple branching look like? |
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Multiple probability branching Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. What is multiple probability branching? |
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Multiple probability branching calculation Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. What is multiple probability branching? |
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Nodes and branching networks Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. What are branching nodes? |
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Nodes and branching networks output graph Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. What are branching nodes? |
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Production example Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. We could look at a production example… |
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Production example extra step Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. Looking further at a production example… |
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Production example output graph Risk management is part of project management. Schedules are similar to cost. Branching pathways may occur. We could look at a production example… |
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Markov chain | |
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Markov chain Risk management is part of project management. Markov models examine the probability of being in a given state at a given point in time… |
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Business forecast | |
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Business forecast overview Risk management is part of project management. Businesses need to estimate future activity. Risk assessment depends on activity and type of operation… |
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Business revenue and profit Risk management is part of project management. Businesses need to estimate future activity. Risk assessment can be used to examine revenue and profit… |
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Business shedule risk Risk management is part of project management. Businesses need to estimate future activity. Risk assessment will involve considering opportunities… |
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Business yearly profit forecast Risk management is part of project management. Businesses need to estimate future activity. Risk assessment can examine a yearly profit forecast… |
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Business yearly profit forecast graph output Risk management is part of project management. Businesses need to estimate future activity. Risk assessment can examine a yearly profit forecast… |
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